R&D expenditure in G7 countries and implications for endogenous fluctuations and growth

The literature on endogenous growth cycles predicts countercyclical R&D expenditure. Aggregate R&D expenditure in G7 countries from 1973 to 1997 seems to be procyclical. Implications for future theoretical research are discussed. --Cyclical Properties of R&D Expenditure,Growth Cycles

Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.Endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles, VEC Mmeasurement errors, Bayesian estimation

Grain Price Fluctuations and Witch Hunting in Bavaria

Based on the data set of Behringer (1997), we develop and test competing models of the determinants of witch hunting in Bavaria in the period 1345-1750, which explain the cyclicity as well as the variation over time from the 14th to the 18th century. Our main focus is on economic factors and their influence on the intensity of prosecution. We analyse this issue by quantifying the importance of grain price fluctuations for the frequency of witch trials/accusations, taking into account other possible explanations like the impact of confession and regional characteristics.

Emerging from the war: Gold Standard mentality, current accounts and the international business cycle 1885-1939

We study international business cycles and capital flows in the UK, the United States and the Emerging Periphery in the period 1885-1939. Based on the same set of parameters, our model explains current account dynamics under both the Classical Gold Standard and during the Interwar period. We interpret this as evidence for Gold Standard mentality: the expectation formation mechanism with respect to major macroeconomic variables driving the current account – output, exchange rates and interest rates – has remained fundamentally stable between the two periods. Nonetheless, the macroeconomic environment changed: Volatility increased generally, but less so for international capital flows than for GDP. This pattern is consistent with shocks in the Interwar period becoming more persistent and more global.Current accounts, capital flows, business cycles, Great Depression, Gold Standard, emerging markets, present-value models

Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking

The empirical literature on central banking has found measures of central bank independence/conservatism to be negatively correlated with inflation and inflation variance across countries. But the cross-country approach has been criticised for its focus on policy outcomes instead of policies, and for the unsystematic conflation of the concepts of independence and conservatism. We avoid these shortcomings by estimating a single-country time series model for the German Bundesbank. We find that an increase in central bank conservatism leads to higher short-term interest rates and a more activist stabilisation policy with respect to macroeconomic shocks. More conservative Bundesbank regimes are associated with a less volatile economy, higher output and somewhat lower inflation. We also investigate the interaction between the central bank and the government. It turns out that non-conservative Bundesbank Councils react more strongly to macroeconomic shocks under conservative than under non-conservative government regimes.Central Bank Independence and Conservatism, Monetary Policy, Central Bank Government Relations, Generalised Impulse Responses

Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model with Human Capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles, VECM measurement errors, Bayesian estimation

Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Hybrid RBC Model

This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.Real Business Cycle, Bayesian estimation, VARMA errors

Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Cycles in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model

Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital model or the standard real business cycle (RBC) model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. We find that while neither of the workhorse growth models uniformly dominates the other across all variables and forecast horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better fit to the data. Some other key results are first, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast horizons whereas human capital productivity innovations dominate at longer ones. Second, the combined explanatory power of the two technology shocks in the human capital model is greater than the Hicks-neutral shock in the RBC model in the medium- and long-term for output and consumption. Finally, the RBC model outperforms the two-sector model with respect to explaining the observed variation in investment and hours.endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles, Bayesian estimation, VAR errors

Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking

Rogoff’s "conservative central banker" has received a lot of attention recently. As a rule, central bank independence and inflation seem to be negatively correlated across countries. But the cross-country approach has been criticized for its reliance on legal measures and the measures’ possible endogeneity. We present an alternative test of whether conservatism in monetary policy matters based on generalized impulse response functions for the case of the German Bundesbank. It turns out that more conservative council majorities do indeed follow a more inflation-averse policy. We find the results very robust with regard to changes in the exchange rate regime, government/central bank conflicts, and the partisan composition of the government.Central Bank Independence; Conservative Central Banker; Monetary Policy; Conflicts; Generalized Impulse Responses

Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries

The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real wages and business fluctuations on the phase of the cycle, it is demonstrated that the inconclusive evidence is not only caused by measurement problems, estimation method and composition bias as discussed in the literature. In addition, one should also consider whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. In general, the evidence for countercyclical wages is stronger in Germany than for the US, but taken together there is no clear systematic pattern.threshold vector autoregressive model, real wages, business cycle